The effects of dynamic decision making on resource allocation the case of pavement management.

by Friedman, Sheldon.

Pavement performance is a broad term that tries to describe how changing usage and varying conditions effect changes in pavement conditions. Measures of performance such as the Pavement Serviceability Index (PSI), the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) or Pavement Quality Index are available for use. Modeling pavement management is an essential activity of a pavement management system. Currently, models are used in the pavement planning and budget development process, as well as in helping to determine pavement life cycle management (George, Rajagopal, and Lim 1989). This process provides a way to plan for both routine maintenance and full rehabilitation of current roads. Maintaining these roads in good order is essential for providing a safe and rapid means of ground transportation in order to support both the current and future economic needs of our communities. System Dynamics is a simulation modeling process that allows the modeler to capture both the structure and behavior of the system under study. It is based on the concept that real world systems are non-linear in nature and the results of actions taken feed back and effect the system necessitating new actions. The objective of this study is to use the System Dynamics modeling process to: • Determine if and how current pavement management practices contribute to problems that pavement managers confront on a day to day basis. • Develop a set of recommendations to improve those practices that are found to contribute to or create problems. • Provide a tool that pavement managers can use to test their own proposed changes to their management practices in the form of a gaming environment. 2 Preface and Acknowledgements This dissertation and the accompanying system dynamics model examine a public policy issue. More specifically, the economies of small towns and states are dependent upon safe, usable highway systems, yet the maintenance of these systems is, in many respects sub-optimal. The model was developed with the hope of providing engineers with a tool for maintaining highway system at costs that are reasonable today, without sacrificing performance or creating future costs that are too high to support. This model could not have been developed without the help of: Dr. Michael J. Radzicki, Committee Chair, Department of Social Systems and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute-whose teaching and guidance made my learning possible. Dr. Khalid Saeed, Chairman, Department of Social Systems and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute-who made me question myself. Dr. James Doyle, Department of Social Systems and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute - who made me think about thinking and decisions. Dr. Rajib Mallick, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute -whose help in learning about road engineering made the research feasible. Dr. Guillermo Salazar, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute -who taught me the core of project management. Pavement Managers from the states of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut and the State Police, Office of Safety, State of Connecticut- without whose inputs this model could not have been structured.