Evidência de histerese na taxa de desemprego do Brasil: uma abordagem com modelos de longa persistência.

by Santos, Vilson Almeida

Studies on the problem of the unemployment in the Europe in the decades of 80 and 90 had allowed to evidence what he was known in literature as hysteresis. This phenomenon considers that random exógenos shocks provoke shunting lines of the tax of balance unemployment that can be permanent despite the effect of these shocks are removed. In this work the parametric procedure is used esteem parameter ?d? of models ARFIMA (p, d, q). The results indicate that the esteem values of the coefficients of the fractionary parameter of integration converge, through the iterative process, for values above of the unit. Algebraic, these are the values of the parameters that maximize the function of esteem likelyhood. Such results indicate not the estacionariedade of the process generated of the data for the series in level. This implies in the permanence of the effect of innovations not waited on the series, in allowing to evidence the presence of hysteresis in the tax of unemployment of Brazil under the boarding of models ARFIMA.