Turkish Trade Flow and the EU : A study of a potential membership
This bachelor thesis examines how the trade flow of Turkey would change if the country becomes a member in the EU. This is done by analysing the Turkish trade flow with the EU and ROW over the period 1995 – 2005. The main question is if trade creation and trade diversion occurs?The model used in this paper is a gravity model influenced by Soloaga and Winters (2000) gravity model. To be able to answer the purpose of this paper we used a crosssectional regression and base our analysis on our results.The conclusion of this paper is that Turkey’s trade flow with the EU will increase if full-membership is accomplished. This leads to trade diversion and trade creation towards the other members-states within EU. We see Turkey as the key to the door for Middle Eastern countries and the EU; this implies that if Turkey becomes a member-state in EU, the trade could increase between these two continents.
School:Högskolan i Jönköping
Source Type:Master's Thesis
Keywords:turkey and the european union gravity model trade diversion creation
Date of Publication:02/26/2008