Stockperformance indicators post recession : - A Study of valuation tools and strategies during recovery

by Kazachenko, Sergey; Paz, Diana

Problem:   What are the most useful techniques to indicate the stocks that will outperform the market 12 month post the recession period?  Purpose:  The purpose is to find out which method(s): P/B, EV/EBIT, level of debt and so on, will offer investors the highest returns on the investments post the recession period based on the example of the IT crisis of 2000/2001.  Method:  Quantitative study, covering the Swedish OMX Index from 2001 until December 2002.  Conclusions:  Three variables should be reconsidered when making an investment decision post the recession period. These variables were earlier 12 months returns, dividend yield and P/E ratios. However, it is crucial to understand that these three tools should not be viewed all together.