Statistical model for the diffusion of innovation and its applications [electronic resource] /

by Liu, Cejun

A well-known statistical model -the Bass new product diffusion model is intro- duced to describe the diffusion of an innovation. The basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer's initial purchase is related to the number of pre- vious buyers. We also introduce two methods of estimating the model's parameters: the ordinary least square (OLS)method and nonlinear least square (NLS)method. We then apply this model to several consumer products data. We obtain the statis- tically significant estimates for the model's parameters, and good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak. We also perform a long range forecast for the sales of ATM cash card.