Staatliche Kapazität, Globalisierung und Regulation der chinesischen Wirtschaft am Ende des 20. Jahrhunderts - State Capacity, Globalization and Regulation in the Chinese Economy at the End of the 20th Century Duisburger Arbeitspapiere zur Ostasienwirtschaft ; 50 (1999)

by Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten

In the late 80s and 90s economic science failed to forecast major systemic crises and collapses. The same may happen with the case of China. The paper develops an analytical frame of reference by applying the conceptual tools of the French regulation school. The recent deflation in China is inter-preted as an indicator of a major disruption in the growth process. Data are presented which support the hypothesis that the contemporary Chinese accumulation regime is still con-tiguous to the Maoist forced industrialization model. Al-though the difference lies in the strong role of consumption for growth, until the late nineties important symptoms of an extensive pattern of growth are clearly discernible. The vi-ability of that accumulation regime depends on the high sav-ings rate. However, this results into a conflict with the ut-terly needed intensification of private consumption, given the inherent limits to a continuation of the Chinese export drive after the Asian crisis.