Predicting the market for high-definition television: Selling and debating the 'television of tomorrow'

by Donnelly, David Francis

Abstract (Summary)
The purpose of this study is to contribute to a better understanding of the process by which communication technologies are defined, constructed, and developed. The technology chosen for examination is High Definition Television (HDTV). The data set consists of a body of HDTV forecasts and predictions concerning HDTV released between the years 1985 and 1990. Utilizing the methodology of the integrative research review, a coding scheme is employed to analyze the data along eight significant variables. They include: (1) the author(s) of the study, (2) the sponsor of the study, (3) the date of the study, (4) the intended audience of the study, (5) the primary methodology employed by the author(s), (6) the degree of audience preference for HDTV, (7) the time frame envisioned for deployment of HDTV, and (8) the degree of success that is depicted for the technology. These eight variables are arranged in a data matrix. Analysis of the data matrix reveals a high level of disagreement and discrepancy concerning the development of HDTV. In interpreting this pattern of divergence, three issues are discussed: how the forecasters define the technology, the positions the forecasters take with respect to the technology, and the sort of strategic response to the technology the forecasters feel is the most appropriate for the U.S. Important conclusions are offered concerning our understanding of the way in which this particular technology is being developed and constructed, and the methods and techniques which are utilized in understanding and predicting this process. The limitations of HDTV as a representative case study are discussed, and areas requiring further research are outlined.
Bibliographical Information:


School:University of Massachusetts Amherst

School Location:USA - Massachusetts

Source Type:Master's Thesis



Date of Publication:01/01/1993

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