Load Forecast Uncertainty Considerations in Bulk Electrical System Adequacy Assessment

by Vega Hernandez, Nahun Bulmaro

The basic objective in bulk electrical system planning is to determine the necessary generating facilities required to ensure an adequate and economic supply of electrical energy and the development of an adequate transmission network to transport the generated energy to the customers. Quantitative adequacy assessment is a basic task in achieving this objective. An important requirement in this task is the ability to forecast the system load requirements at specific times in the future. These forecasts must also recognize the inherent uncertainty in predicting the future load demands.

The primary focus of the research described in this thesis is to examine the effects and implications of load forecast uncertainty on the load point and system adequacy indices of a composite generation and transmission system. This thesis considers two techniques to incorporate the inherent uncertainty associated with future load forecasts in the adequacy assessment of bulk electrical systems. Base case and factor analyses are performed on a number of power system configurations to identify and address the relative contributions to the load point and system indices due to load forecast uncertainty. A transmission reinforcement option and a number of generation system expansion options are presented to examine the system reliability response due to load forecast uncertainty.

The actual magnitudes of the changes due to load forecast uncertainty in the load bus and system risk indices and in the percentage change values are different for each generation expansion scenario. The topology and parameters of the system are different in each of the studied power system configurations. The effect of load forecast uncertainty on the system and load point adequacy can be quantified and utilized in the decision-making process associated with system generation and transmission planning. Load forecast uncertainty has important impacts on the system and load point indices that can only be appreciated by conducting comprehensive bulk system adequacy assessment. The actual effects are a complicated function of the system topology and parameters, and the system load curtailment philosophy.