Document Text (Pages 31-40) Back to Document

Foreign Exchange Risk Management in Commercial Banks in Pakistan

by Sabri, Maroof Hussain, MS


Page 31

Where:
Log[p/1-p] = Logit [p] =ln[p/1-p]
a = Constant
b = slope values (for independent variables 1 to 5)
X = Independent variables ( 1 to 5)
P can be calculated using the below formula, which is simply another
rearrangement of the above equation:

Where:

= ��� a+b1X
1+b
2X2+b
3X
3+b
4X
4+b
5X
5 / 1+ ��� a+b
1X1+b
2X2+b
3X
3+b4X
4+b
5X
5
Model 4: Calculation of P using Binary Logistic Regression for Currency Derivative Usage

p = odds ratio
The Logits (Log Odds) are the b coefficients (Slope values) of the regression
equation. b coefficients (slope values) can be interpreted as the change in the Log
Odds due to a unit change in the independent variable. b for the Net Assets (in
billions rupees) can be interpreted as the change in Log Odds due to a one billion
change in net assets of a commercial bank. Similarly, the b’s for all other
independent variables can be interpreted in the same way.
p here refers to as the Odds ratio, which is very important to interpret in this
model here. Odds ratio estimate the change in odds of the membership in the
target group (which is usage of tools other than forwards in this case) for a unit
increase in the independent variable. For example, changes in odds due to a unit
change in Net Assets, i.e. one billion rupees of net assets. It can be calculated as
the exponential of the regression coefficient, b, of the relative independent
variable.
Using this model, it has to be found out that what role does above mentioned
independent variables play for the selection of tools. Selection of tools means that
whether the banks use only forward exchange contracts or use swaps and options
along with forward exchange contracts. Using SPSS, Binary Logistic Regression
is run using “Backward Stepwise based on Likelihood Ratio Test”. All the
variables are entered in the model and then using backward stepwise method
based on Likelihood ratio tests, insignificant independent variables are removed
and finally only the significant variables are retained in the model.

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Foreign Exchange Risk Management & its Impact on Income

Foreign Exchange Risk Management practices vary from bank to bank and so
does the income of banks. An important objective of this study is to study income
from dealing in foreign currencies and do different factors affect income from
dealing in foreign currencies.
Study the descriptive of Income from dealing in foreign currencies in
both Islamic & Conventional Banks & Comparison Between them
Income from dealing in foreign currencies of commercial banks with respect to its
type i.e. conventional or Islamic is studied using descriptive analysis. For this
purpose, the variable used is Income from Dealing in foreign currencies as a
percentage of total income. Further income from dealing in foreign currencies in
absolute terms is also descriptively analyzed. The actual purpose of using the both
variables in this descriptive analysis is to check descriptive in absolute terms as
well as in relative terms to its overall income.
To compare both these groups independent sample t-test is used and the below
mentioned hypothesis are formed:
H0: There is no significant difference between IFX of conventional banks and
Islamic Banks
H1: There is a significant difference between IFX of conventional banks and
Islamic Banks
Study the descriptive of Income from dealing in foreign currencies in
both Public Sector Commercial Banks and Local Private Banks &
Compare them
Income from dealing in foreign currencies of commercial banks with respect to its
ownership status i.e. whether it is a public sector commercial bank or local private
bank, is studied using descriptive analysis. Both the variables Income from
dealing in foreign currencies in absolute terms and in relative terms to overall
income.
To compare both these groups independent sample t-test is used and the below
mentioned hypothesis are formed:
H0: There is no significant difference between IFX of public sector commercial
banks and local private banks
H1: There is a significant difference between IFX of public sector commercial
banks and Islamic Banks

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Income from dealing in foreign currencies and size of bank
It is very important to check whether size of bank have any effect on income from
dealing in foreign currencies. Simple Linear Regression model is used to check
this relationship. Two separate models are constructed to check the effect of size
of bank on income from dealing in foreign currencies. First model check the
effect of size on Income from dealing in foreign currencies in absolute terms (in
rupees) and second one check the effect of size on the Income from dealing in
foreign currencies relative to total income.
Independent Variable: Size of bank, as measured throughout this study using Net
Assets.
Dependent Variable (Model 1): IFXRS, Income from dealing in foreign
currencies (in ‘000 rupees)
Dependent Variable (Model 2): IFX, Income from dealing in foreign currencies as
a percentage of total income of bank.
Simple linear regression models used to investigate above relationships can be
given as:

Hypothesis:

����� = + ��� + ɛ
Model 5: Model 1 of Relationship between Net Assets & IFXRS

��� = + ��� + ɛ

Model 6: Model 2 of Relationship between Net Assets & IFX

Following are the list of hypothesis constructed
H0: There is no linear relationship between Net Assets & Income from dealing in
foreign currencies in rupees.
H1: There is a linear relationship between Net Assets & Income from dealing in
foreign currencies in rupees.
H0: There is no linear relationship between Net Assets & Income from dealing in
foreign currencies relative to total income.
H1: There is a linear relationship between Net Assets & Income from dealing in
foreign currencies relative to total income
Effects of tools used on Income from Dealing in Foreign Currencies

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Another objective of this study is to check whether the use of currency derivatives
have any impact on the income from dealing in foreign currencies of commercial
banks. This can be investigated using Simple Linear Regression.
Independent Variable: In this case independent variable is tools used by
commercial banks. This variable is entered into the simple linear regression model
as a dummy variable. As forwards contracts are used by all the commercial banks
of Pakistan therefore, again here two categories are formed, 0 & 1. 0 for the banks
who use only forward exchange contracts and 1 for the banks who use currency
swaps or foreign currency options or both along with these forwards exchange
contracts.
Dependent Variable: Dependent Variable in this case is Income from dealing in
foreign currencies as a percentage of total income of bank, as obtained from
Income Statement of respective commercial bank. Income from foreign currencies
is mentioned under non markup income head in income statement. This cannot be
directly used in this model due to the differences between the banks in size and
overall income, therefore, income from dealing in foreign currencies is taken as a
percentage of total income of the bank. Total Income here includes total Net
Markup Income and Markup income before deduction of any expenses. Net
markup income means total markup income earned less markup expenses as paid
on deposits. Therefore, using this variable as Income from foreign currencies as a
percentage of total income, denoted by IFX, adjusts for the interbank differences
of characteristics.
Model:
The simple linear regression model as used in this analysis is as below:

Where

��� = + ������ +
Model 7: Relationship between Tools used and IFX

IFX = Income from dealing in foreign currencies as a percentage
of Total income
= Intercept of the model
β = Slope of the model, regression coefficient
Tools =
variable
Independent variable: tools used entered as a dummy

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= Error term
Using the above mentioned model, regression coefficient b, an unbiased estimate
of β, is calculated and its significance is checked. To check the significance,
ANOVA is used and below mentioned hypothesis is constructed;
H0: There is no linear relationship between IFX & Tools
H1: There is a linear relationship between IFX & Tools
ANOVA is used to check the overall significance of this regression model. R
square explains the extent of relationship as explained by the regression model.
Income from dealing in foreign currencies and Exchange Rate Volatility
Exchange Rate Volatility is a very important phenomenon in the forex market. As
commercial banks deal in foreign currencies, it is very important to check whether
commercial banks are affected by the exchange rate volatility. Simple Linear
Regression model is used to check this relationship. Two separate models are
constructed to check the effect of exchange rate volatility on income from dealing
in foreign currencies. First model check the effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on
Income from dealing in foreign currencies in absolute terms (in rupees) and
second one check the effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Income from
dealing in foreign currencies relative to total income.
Independent Variable: Exchange Rate Volatility, for this purpose current year
exchange rate volatility is taken into account.
Dependent Variable (Model 1): IFXRS, Income from dealing in foreign
currencies (in ‘000 rupees)
Dependent Variable (Model 2): IFX, Income from dealing in foreign currencies as
a percentage of total income of bank.
Simple linear regression models used to investigate above relationships can be
given as:

Hypothesis:

����� = + ���� + ɛ
Model 8: Model 1 of Relationship between ERV& IFXRS
��� = + ���� + ɛ
Model 9: Model 2 of Relationship between ERV & IFX

Following are the list of hypothesis constructed
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H0: There is no linear relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility & Income
from dealing in foreign currencies in rupees.
H1: There is a linear relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility & Income
from dealing in foreign currencies in rupees.
H0: There is no linear relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility & Income
from dealing in foreign currencies relative to total income.
H1: There is a linear relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility & Income
from dealing in foreign currencies relative to total income

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Findings & Analysis

Data obtained from Annual reports of commercial banks, statistical bulletins and
other publications by State Bank of Pakistan is analyzed using the above
methodology mentioned in the previous section. Different research methods and a
variety of statistical techniques are used for this purpose.
All the findings are mentioned in this section, along with analysis.

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Page 39

Findings on Net Foreign Currency Exposure of Commercial Banks in
Pakistan

Foreign Currency Exposure of commercial banks in Pakistan is studied and
findings relative to different research questions are below:
1. Net Foreign Currency Exposure

1. Annual reports of Commercial banks showed that majority of commercial
banks assume foreign currency exposure. All the commercial banks
mentioned their Net Foreign Currency Exposure in Notes to their financial
statements.

2. A new variable “Net Foreign Currency Exposure Relative to Net Assets”
(NFXNA) is constructed and analyzed.

a. Almost majority of the banks have positive figure which shows

that they hold overall Net Asset Position.
b. Few banks have zero as they do not take any exposure and keep

their positions offset and hedged all the time.
c. A few banks even have negative figure, which shows that they

hold overall NET LIABILITY POSITION.
Below is the table showing descriptive of the variable NFXNA:

Descriptive Statistics: Net Foreign Currency Exposure Relative to Net Assets
N Range Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
NFXNA 108 2.18049 -1.03309 1.14740 .7988934 .39340539
Valid N (listwise) 108
Table ii: NFXNA, Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive statistics as mentioned in the above Table ii, clearly show that Net
foreign currency exposure varies from bank to bank. A standard deviation of
0.3934, as obtained from the data of 108 banks for the period 2005-2009, shows
the degree of dispersion in this variable and hence it can be said that Net foreign
currency exposure of banks vary and all the banks do not have the same ratio of
NFXNA.
2. Findings on “Factors Affecting Foreign Currency Exposure
To study whether different factors as mentioned in previous section affect the Net
Foreign Currency Exposure of Commercial banks in Pakistan or not. Multiple
Linear Regression is used to check the relationship between “Net Foreign
Currency Exposure Relative to Net Assets” as a dependent variable and a set of

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independent variables i.e. size of bank, ownership status of bank & exchange rate
volatility. To serve the purpose, below mentioned model (Model # 1) is formed:
����� = +
�������� +
���� +
������ +
A correlation matrix to check the correlation between independent variables so
that it can be found out if there is any Multicollinearity in the above mentioned
model or not. The correlation matrix is below:

Correlations

Ownership

Status Size
Exchange
Rate Volatility NFXNA
Ownership Status Pearson Correlation 1 -.343** .073 -.056
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .448 .565
N 110 110 110 108
Size Pearson Correlation -.343** 1 .125 .093
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .193 .341
N 110 110 110 108
Exchange Rate
Volatility
Pearson Correlation .073 .125 1 .142
Sig. (2-tailed) .448 .193 .142
N 110 110 110 108
NFXNA Pearson Correlation -.056 .093 .142 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .565 .341 .142
N 108 108 108 108
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Table iii: Correlation between OS, Size & ERV

It is obvious from the above correlation matrix that the correlation between any of
two independent variables is not greater than 0.5 and is far less than this
threshold. Therefore, it can be said on the basis of the above mentioned findings
that there is no problem of Multicollinearity in this model.
After checking for the Multicollinearity and finding that there is no
Multicollinearity, Multiple Linear Regression is run on the data using the above
mentioned dependents and a set of independent variables, using SPSS Statistics
Processer. The output from SPSS is below:

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