An Exchange Ratio Determination Model For Airline Mergers:Taiwan's Case Simulative Studies

by Yu, Chung-Hsun

Abstract In stock-exchanged airline mergers, the determination of an exchange ratio is an important issue. The purpose of this paper is providing a simulative study of exchange ratio determination for airline merger in Taiwan. The paper is based on the Larson-Gonedes merger exchange ratio model(1969) and extends it to consider marker risk. In addition, we use the exponential smoothing model to estimate the expected post-merger price-earnings ratio. Our sample consists of China Airlines and EVA Airways. We find that the L-G model indicates the interval of exchange ratios which will enhance, or at last not cause any diminution in the wealth positions of all parties to a proposed airline merger. Also, the bargaining area offers some information to help merger candidates to negotiate final actual exchange ratio.