An Evaluation of Current and Future Costs for Lithium-Ion Batteries for Use in Electrified Vehicle Powertrains
Of these five goals, cost may be the most uncertain, and perhaps the most critical. This research examines the primary cost drivers for automotive Li-ion batteries at the cell-, module-, and pack-level. It then investigates how these costs may change over the next two decades, and what impact this may have on the cost-competitiveness of electrified vehicles. This is accomplished through the development of a bottom-up cost model that considers the materials cost, manufacturing cost, and other costs such as corporate overhead and research and development that contribute to overall Li-ion battery costs. Two scenarios of how these costs may change are developed: an optimistic case and a pessimistic case. Additionally, the level to which battery costs must decline in order for vehicles of varying levels of powertrain electrification to become economically competitive with their conventional internal combustion engine counterparts is calculated.
Results indicate that the primary cost drivers for Li-ion batteries at the pack-level are cell-level materials cost and manufacturing yields. Improvements in these areas will be key drivers for reductions in overall battery costs, and may make electrified vehicles cost-competitive with conventional automobiles. However, this cost-competitiveness is highly sensitive to fuel prices. Various policy and market mechanisms can significantly impact the economic viability of electrified vehicles and influence the rate at which they are adopted.
School Location:USA - North Carolina
Source Type:Master's Thesis
Keywords:lithium ion battery powertrain electrification vehicle li costs
Date of Publication:04/24/2009