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ESTIMATING ILLEGAL DRUG MARKET LOCATION IN CINCINNATI USING THE HUFF MODEL

by HUANG, SHIJING

Abstract (Summary)
This study estimated illegal drug market locations using the Huff Model in Cincinnati. Traditionally, the Huff Model is used in legal retail markets to determine the optimal location of a proposed market. Researchers show that there is a common goal existing in both illegal drug markets and legal retail markets, that of making profits. Based on the common goal, the Huff Model was applied in this study to estimate possible locations of illegal drug markets. First, this study quantified the attractiveness of each block in Cincinnati as a potential drug market. Second, the travel time from all blocks in Cincinnati to the selected potential drug market was calculated with the Network Analysis function in ArcView. Thirdly, using the attractiveness and the travel time, the likelihood that a drug user would travel to a certain potential drug market is derived. After obtaining the likelihood, the estimated number of drug users attracted by each potential market is calculated by multiplying the likelihood by the total population in each block. The location of a drug market is determined by the estimated number of drug users attracted from every block in Cincinnati. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient was used to test the consistency between the estimated number of drug users and the calls for service in each potential drug market location. The coefficient shows that the rank order for the estimation and the number of calls for service in each potential drug market is highly consistent. This study also found that in illegal drug markets, the ? value, which is the parameter in the Huff Model controlling the effect of travel time, is higher than its counterpart in legal retail markets, indicating that most drug users do not travel long distances to purchase drugs.
Bibliographical Information:

Advisor:

School:University of Cincinnati

School Location:USA - Ohio

Source Type:Master's Thesis

Keywords:drug market locations the huff model attractiveness arcview spearman rank order correlation coefficient

ISBN:

Date of Publication:01/01/2004

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