Drifter modeling and error assessment in wind driven currents

by Furnans, Jordan Ernest.

Horizontal circulation within the surface layer of Lake Kinneret was modeled using a 3D hydrodynamic model (ELCOM) in conjunction with a numerical particle tracking algorithm. Differences in circulation predicted by changing model spatial and temporal resolution, wind forcing, and spin-up time were assessed. Comparisons of field and modeled drifter trajectories demonstrate model sensitivity to small changes in model setup and the difficulty in obtaining good agreement. Integration of numerical error when using a coarse model grid and time step appears to dominate the prediction of particle tracks, an effect compounded by uncertainties in spatial gradients of wind forcing. 1 Corresponding author: Center for Research in Water Resources, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78731, USA email: jfurnans@mail.utexas.edu, fax:512-471-0072 2 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78731, USA 226