Document Text (Pages 61-68) Back to Document

Discontinuities due to survey redesigns : a structural time series approach

by Goesjenov, Ibragim, MS


Page 61

7
6
5
4
smoothed trend violence data violence smoothed trend property data property

12.5

10.0
3 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend vandalism data vandalism smoothed trend no stop data no stop

10 1

1.25
1.00
0.75

1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend other data other smoothed trend total data total

25

0.50
0.25 1995 2000 2005 2010
20
1995 2000 2005 2010
(a) M2 None Smoothed trend

6

5
smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

12.5

10.0
4 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
12.5 smoothed signal vandalism data vandalism smoothed signal no stop data no stop

1.75
1.50
10.0 1.25
1.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1.00 smoothed signal other data other smoothed signal total data total
30.0
27.5
0.75

0.50
1995 2000 2005 2010

25.0
22.5
20.0 1995 2000 2005 2010
(b) M2 None Smoothed signal

Figure 7: M2 None

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6 smoothed trend violence data violence smoothed trend property data property
15

4 10

12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0

1.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
2.0
smoothed trend vandalism data vandalism smoothed trend no stop data no stop

1.5
1.0
0.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend other data other smoothed trend total data total

30

0.5
20

1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
(a) M2 None Smoothed trend without Intervention 3

6 smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

5
12.5

4 1995 2000 2005 2010
10.0
1995 2000 2005 2010
12.5 smoothed signal vandalism data vandalism smoothed signal no stop data no stop

1.75
1.50
10.0

1.0

1.25

1995 2000 2005 2010 1.00 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed signal other data other smoothed signal total data total

30

25
0.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
(b) M2 None Smoothed signal without Intervention 3

Figure 8: M2 None without Intervention 3

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6

5

15
smoothed trend violence data violence smoothed trend property data property

12.5

10.0
1995 2000 2005 2010
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend vandalism data vandalism smoothed trend no stop data no stop

1.5
10

1.0

1.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend other data other smoothed trend total data total

30.0
27.5

0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010

25.0
22.5
20.0 1995 2000 2005 2010
(a) M3 None Smoothed trend

6

5

4

12.5

10.0
smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

14
13
12
11
1995 2000 2005 2010
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed theta vandalism data vandalism smoothed theta no stop data no stop

1.5
1.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010
1.0 smoothed theta other data other smoothed theta total data total

27.5

25.0
0.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
(b) M3 None Smoothed signal

Figure 9: M3 None

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6
5
4
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0

1.0
smoothed trend violence data violence smoothed trend property data property

15

10
1995 2000 2005 2010
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend vandalism data vandalism smoothed trend no stop data no stop

1.5
1.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend other data other smoothed trend total data total

30

25
0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010

80
smoothed trend POLICE total data POLICE total

60 1995 2000 2005 2010
(a) M4 None Smoothed trend

6
5
4
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5

1.00
0.75
0.50
smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

14

1995 2000 2005 2010

13
12
11 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed signal vandalism data vandalism smoothed signal no stop data no stop

1.75

1995 2000 2005 2010

1.50
1.25
1.00 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed signal other data other smoothed signal total data total

1995 2000 2005 2010

30.0
27.5
25.0
22.5 1995 2000 2005 2010

80
smoothed signal POLICE total data POLICE total

1995 2000 2005 2010
(b) M4 None Smoothed signal

Figure 10: M4 None

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6 smoothed trend violence real data violence smoothed trend property data property

5
12.5

4 1995 2000 2005 2010
10.0
1995 2000 2005 2010

12.5

10.0
smoothed trend vandalism data vandalism

1.75 smoothed trend no stop data no stop
1.50
1.25

30.0
27.5
25.0
22.5
20.0
1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed trend total data total

1995 2000 2005 2010
1.00 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a) M5 Smoothed trend National

7.5 smoothed trend violence man data violence 15.0 smoothed trend property man data property

12.5
5.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 10.0 1995 2000 2005 2010
15 smoothed trend vandalism man data vandalism 2.0 smoothed trend no stop man data no stop
1.5

10
1995 2000 2005 2010

1.0
0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010
30 smoothed trend total man data total

25

1995 2000 2005 2010

(b) M5 Smoothed trend Men

6 smoothed trend violence woman data violence smoothed trend property woman data property

4
10
2 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
12.5 smoothed trend vandalism woman data vandalism smoothed trend no stop woman data no stop

2
10.0
7.5
5.0 1995 2000 2005 2010
1
1995 2000 2005 2010
25 smoothed trend total woman data total

20

1995 2000 2005 2010

(c) M5 Smoothed trend Women

Figure 11: Smoothed trends M5
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6 smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

14
5

4 1995 2000 2005 2010
12
1995 2000 2005 2010

12.5

10.0
smoothed signal vandalism data vandalism

1.75 smoothed signal no stop data no stop
1.50
1.25

1995 2000 2005 2010 1.00 1995 2000 2005 2010

27.5
smoothed signal total data total

25.0

1995 2000 2005 2010

(a) M5 Smoothed signal National

7
smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

14

5 1995 2000 2005 2010
12
1995 2000 2005 2010
15.0 smoothed signal vandalism data vandalism smoothed signal no stop data no stop
2.0

12.5
1.5
1.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 0.5 1995 2000 2005 2010

30.0
smoothed signal total data total

27.5

1995 2000 2005 2010

(b) M5 Smoothed signal Men

5

4
smoothed signal violence data violence smoothed signal property data property

12.5

15
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed signal vandalism data vandalism smoothed signal no stop data no stop
2

10

27.5
25.0

1995 2000 2005 2010
smoothed signal total data total
1
1995 2000 2005 2010

22.5
20.0 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c) M5 Smoothed signal Women

Figure 12: Smoothed signals M5
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