Developing a framework for predicting the impact of ITS/CVO technology in developing countries [electronic resource] /

by Turk, Mazen.

Developing A Framework for Predicting the Impact of ITS/CVO Technology in Developing Countries Mazen Turk Understanding how a transportation system responds to the implementation of new technologies will result in better policy decisions. Recently planners and policy makers have come to the understanding that forecasting alone no longer plays the central role in predicting impact. The process of information collection, analysis, and decisionmaking should rather be viewed from a wider perspective in order to allow for explicit assessment of what is needed for both short and long-term planning. The prediction process must consider all aspects of a global complex transportation system, and activity system focusing on understanding their interrelations and interdependencies. In developing countries, especially, socioeconomic and sociopolitical issues are dynamic in nature and hard to foresee. The changes will impact the demand on the transportation system, causing it to react and behave in predictable and unpredictable manners. This study focuses on freight mobility in developing countries. System improvements depend on state of the art technologies to be deployed in the Transportation Infrastructure. Intelligent Transportation Systems and Commercial Vehicle Operation technologies (ITS/CVO) although a significant investment, offer many improvement alternatives. This study develops a framework for predicting the impact of new technologies on the global transportation system in developing countries. This is done in an effort to reduce cost and improve safety, efficiency and level of service. The task will be divided into three sections. The first will entail looking at prediction from a global perspective. This will specify the elements that affect changes in flow volumes in a particular transportation system. The second section will look at the system from a conceptual view. Microeconomic theory is used to analyze the system. The third section will focus on implementation. This section will devise model formulation, what data to use, and how to use it. The motivation for developing the framework emanates from the major modernization program that The Port of Beirut has embarked on in an effort to make it a competitive port in the region. With large investments being injected in transportation projects, planners will make use of this framework in order to partake in better decision making. Improving transportation investment decision making will provide economic growth and act as the backbone to integrate all sectors of the economy such as trade, manufacturing, and finance.