Determining the safety of urban arterial roads

by Campbell, Meredith L.

The purpose of this project was to investigate the safety of urban arterial nonaccess controlled roads in Worcester, Massachusetts. An investigation into the dependent variable proved inconclusive and the historical accident rate was used. The best functional form for these roads was unclear so both linear and log-linear models were developed. A linear model was developed that predicted the total accident crash rate and log-linear model was developed to predict the same thing. A second linear model was developed to predict the total injury accident crash rate. The models were validated using independent data where the linear total accident crash rate model was found to be the most robust of the three in that both state primary roads and other arterial roads could have crash rates predicted to a better than fifty percent error.