Biosecurity and risk analysis for cow-calf enterprises: a simulation model for Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus
A Monte Carlo model was developed to calculate the risk of introducing BVDV to a cow-calf herd and number of PIs introduced in one year, based on herd imports and biosecurity strategies. The results of that model were integrated with a stochastic SIR model for the spread and impact of BVDV through a cow-calf herd over 10 years, based on herd size and control strategies. The resulting model was integrated with a stochastic model for the cost of both the biosecurity and control measures used and the financial impact of BVDV infection on the herd over 10 years. The lowest risk option of 14 biosecurity strategies were calculated for 400-, 100-, and 50-head herds with 8 different import profiles, and management factors that increase financial risk due to BVDV were determined.
School:Kansas State University
School Location:USA - Kansas
Source Type:Master's Thesis
Keywords:biosecurity risk analysis bvdv beef cow calf epidemiology biology veterinary science 0778
Date of Publication:01/01/2007