As sementes da discórdia : regras e exceções da indisciplina partidária

by da Silva, José Alexandre

What factors explain Brazilian party indiscipline in the Brazilian Congress? Conventional wisdom over this issue usually employs both electoral system or legislative internal rules as independent variables to predict indiscipline individual behavior. This dissertation includes new variables that should minimize these methodological shortcomings and then overcome dichotomous assessments. I used antiguidade, political experience, party antiguidade, partisan expertise and party shifting as explanatory variables to estimate how close are parties and members. In statistical terms, more party connection and probability of indiscipline should be negative correlated. Therefore, the analytical focus is over political actors and their choices based on theories that attempt to explain the connection between individual and collective interests. On theoretical grounds, my central hypothesis is that congressmen will develop survival electoral strategies based on the take of private (individual) or public goods (party). The units of analysis are the 51st and 52nd national legislatures. The results suggest that specific political choices constitute an important proxy to estimate congressmen odds of undisciplined behavior