Application of Deterministic-Probabilistic (D-P)Criterion to Bulk Electric System Planning

by Bao, Huiling

Bulk electric system reliability assessment is an important activity in both vertically integrated and unbundled electric power utilities. The conventional deterministic N-1 criterion normally used in bulk electric system planning does not respond to the probabilistic factors that influence the reliability of the system and is a rigid criterion. New assessment procedures are therefore required that combine the traditional deterministic approach with probabilistic perspectives to provide a responsive planning criterion.

This research work introduces the concept of a joint deterministic-probabilistic (D-P) criterion for bulk electric system planning using a previously developed software package designated as MECORE. The D-P concept presented is a deterministic framework that incorporates a probabilistic criterion. This research examines the application of the conventional deterministic N-1, the basic probabilistic and the D-P criteria to two test systems. The studies show that the D-P approach is driven by the accepted deterministic N-1 criterion and influenced by the probabilistic criterion (Pc). The D-P technique adds additional probabilistic risk information to the traditional deterministic N-1 criterion that is useful when making system reinforcement decisions.

The research work illustrated in this thesis indicates that the D-P criterion and associated procedures for bulk electric system analysis can be effectively utilized in bulk electric system reliability assessment. The conclusions and the techniques presented in this thesis should prove valuable to those responsible for composite generation and transmission system expansion planning.